Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. This year with Mr Trump winning the county handily, not only did Vigo County Republicans keep their seats, a "red tide" similar to what transpired in Ottawa and Valencia counties saw Republican members take positions such as county judge, treasurer, clerk and recorder. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Trump won 18 of the 19. But it's still indicative of widespread support. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. In their . Want to dive deeper? Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. University of Denver, 2. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. 10. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Their hopes are real. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . So, where are the bellwether counties? With demographic change in the Research Triangle area, though, it's possible for Clinton to win without this smaller county. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. Until this year. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. (subject to censorship). ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. 3. Iowa (6 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). It requires a lot more than pure luck.). But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. i.e. hide caption. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). 2023 BBC. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. But it's also not unprecedented. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695.

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